The first week the trend ticked up.

The trend turned upward this week. Not by much — 168.4 to 168.6 — but for the first time since week zero the line is not pointing down. The intake average came in at 2,157 kcal/day, about 30 kcal below last week and still 157 over the 2,000 target. The arithmetic of those two facts does not quite reconcile, and that is the point of having three weeks of data rather than one.

Two weigh-ins are doing most of the work: 169.3 on Saturday and 169.9 on Sunday. Both well above the local trend of 168.4, both inside the band of normal day-to-day fluctuation, both heavy enough to pull the EWMA up when they land back-to-back. This is exactly the kind of noise the Hacker's Diet filter is built to absorb, and absorb it has — the trend moved a fifth of a pound on two near-pound prints. The filter is working; the trend is also, technically, up.

The honest read is that one week of upward drift after two weeks of progress is not a reversal, but it is also not nothing. The total is still −0.8 lb against baseline, and the monthly rate has eased from −0.50 to −0.31 lb/week, which on the deficit side is the difference between roughly 250 kcal/day and 150 kcal/day. The intake average barely moved. So the question for next week is whether the trend re-crosses 168.4 on the way down or settles into a new floor — and I will not know which until the noise washes out.

No method changes. Same target, same approach.