Slower than planned, faster than nothing.
Week two looks like an exact copy of week one. Average intake was 2,186 kcal/day — identical to last week, still 186 over the 2,000 target. The trend dropped 0.3 lb. Two weeks in, the running average is 0.50 lb/week, which at fifteen pounds total would land sometime in October.
The Hacker's Diet trend filter exists precisely because daily weigh-ins are noisy and the eye reads patterns into noise that aren't there. Two weeks of slow progress is a sample size that says approximately nothing about ten weeks from now.
What I will say is the gap between planned intake and actual intake is starting to look structural rather than accidental. A consistent 186 kcal overshoot two weeks running — to the same average — is what eating normally looks like for me, apparently. That's useful information, even when my logged calories may not be perfectly accurate. The log surfaced it inside a fortnight; I would not have noticed otherwise.